Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cd06be21c56d2e8e6a72702a7726716614a7ea2856040c99c2e827f8697dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 677.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…5597backed No | 55c | 367.1$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 32c | 324.4$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.02 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 64c | 311.01$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 294.15$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 294.1$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 44c | 245.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 43c | 233.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 233.58$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 77c | 209.85$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 26c | 208.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.56 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 199.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 186.85$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 185.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 178.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 164.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 63c | 161.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 33c | 153.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 136.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 43c | 127.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 60c | 125.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 107.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 105.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 104.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…b46bbacked No | 16c | 100.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 99.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 91.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 84.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 71c | 75.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed No | 53c | 70.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 65.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 62.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 34c | 58.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 57.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 54.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…1ad3backed Yes | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 69c | 48.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 48.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 64c | 44.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…c964backed No | 31c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 73c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 63c | 38.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 74c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 30.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 66c | 30.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 40c | 29.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 65c | 29.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…18afbacked No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 22.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 67c | 18.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 71c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.