MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c56bc06f681ee17a39151b69b83e77e7ca4355fe09cdf108b32160f09e54f95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 13,188$7,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,799.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 7,079$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 22c | 2,018$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.85 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 68c | 792.45$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Over | 75c | 765.87$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.4 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 660.47$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 594.62$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 517.96$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 61c | 474.85$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 385$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 40c | 286.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 55c | 272.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 238.61$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 193.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 190.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 111.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 74c | 109.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 56c | 91.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 54c | 70.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 67.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 53c | 67.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 56c | 66.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 36c | 56.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 65c | 54.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 33c | 51.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e6…a83fbacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 55c | 38.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 55c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.