MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba73dabefbbb00f2fa6ad25a11904058525f7deb8f3e9aa97a16f5a779cf1c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 12,904$7,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,677.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 44c | 9,064$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,988.16 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 40c | 3,201$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.62 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 44c | 1,232$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.08 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 939.18$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 541.25$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 60c | 371.48$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 350$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 45c | 267.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 56c | 113.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…5c16backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…5f86backed Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…480fbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 71c | 45.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 31.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.