MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682f4c869434e307b2d1243057bcaa5f2b231db977f0299f88a7dab4c9bb024d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 53c | 10,932$5,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,793.79 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 47c | 8,111$3,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,298.83 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…c219backed Under | 52c | 2,334$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 47c | 2,219$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.74 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 1,246$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 977.74$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 956.99$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 47c | 208.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.45 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 144.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 51c | 99.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Over | 59c | 82.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 42c | 67.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 52c | 52.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 41.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 35.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.