TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros28c2,239$627 inLost-$627.48,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers72c2,101$1,516 inWon+$585.118,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros29c721.53$212 inLost-$211.643,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Texas Rangers56c612.87$343 inWon+$269.6682636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros44c470.4$207 inLost-$206.611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Rangers56c315$176 inWon+$138.61,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Texas Rangers56c307.14$172 inWon+$135.141,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers72c206.6$149 inWon+$57.9612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros28c199.91$56 inLost-$55.981,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Houston Astros26c166.02$44 inLost-$43.6410838.9%42 W · 66 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers56c123.8$69 inWon+$54.473,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers73c96.37$71 inWon+$25.692,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Texas Rangers72c96$69 inWon+$26.8855448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers73c92.59$68 inWon+$259,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros30c77.4$23 inLost-$22.972,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Texas Rangers70c61.65$43 inWon+$18.2115248%73 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Houston Astros31c59.33$18 inLost-$18.3740048.5%194 W · 206 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Houston Astros28c44.68$13 inLost-$12.5140753.3%217 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros28c41.32$12 inLost-$11.572,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2285…2aeabacked Houston Astros30c39.48$12 inLost-$11.955621.4%12 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers57c29$17 inWon+$12.475,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Texas Rangers71c25$18 inWon+$7.251,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.