MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aa911126eadc15d240b81cf58e3d0678c95ad851b692418a68b4a277fe380b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Houston Astros, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 22c | 25,128$5,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,610.89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 12,241$9,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,195.59 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Texas Rangers | 78c | 5,514$4,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 3,763$2,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 2,654$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.01 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 30c | 2,516$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 40c | 684$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 23c | 556.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 69c | 499.98$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 339$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 308.43$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 299.62$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 292$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 30c | 292$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 259.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Houston Astros | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers | 79c | 226.38$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Houston Astros | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Houston Astros | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Houston Astros | 31c | 198.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 27c | 166.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Houston Astros | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Texas Rangers | 77c | 130.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Houston Astros | 31c | 124.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Houston Astros | 31c | 123.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Houston Astros | 31c | 102.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Houston Astros | 31c | 98.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 96.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 95.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 42c | 91.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Texas Rangers | 78c | 87.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 50.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Houston Astros | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 48.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 41c | 28.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Texas Rangers | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Texas Rangers | 77c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Texas Rangers | 65c | 15.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.