World Politics · resolved market
Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb217f7dc9a925bc7621147e15d48bb18003e21214a47486917c9145a8c6190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc58…f6e4backed Yes | 9c | 5,110$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,650.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 36c | 1,494$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 7c | 1,361$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…c14dbacked Yes | 64c | 652.35$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed Yes | 62c | 623.32$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 13c | 540.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2286…c31fbacked Yes | 76c | 342.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…cd0bbacked No | 52c | 318.08$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…120dbacked Yes | 58c | 226.89$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 6c | 180.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…69bdbacked Yes | 56c | 178.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 105.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 40c | 100.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 57c | 89.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 62c | 55.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…aeddbacked Yes | 52c | 41.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 43c | 35.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 66c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…aa2cbacked Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…f842backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?Yes won
- Will Sanseitō loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.