World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc973e9b68681a2471d8fef7e0385f01a996d378190681372bd12d808d4a49334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 58c | 1,947$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked Yes | 41c | 1,289$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 59c | 720$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 44c | 659.59$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.54 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 52c | 625.26$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.01 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 39c | 400$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 392.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 38c | 371.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 59c | 326$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 59c | 243$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 62c | 160.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…e89cbacked Yes | 51c | 70.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 65.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…5fb8backed Yes | 53c | 37.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed Yes | 52c | 30.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 56c | 28.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 48c | 27.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 73c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party for the People loose any seats in Japanese snap election?this page
- Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?Yes won
- Will Sanseitō loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?Yes won
- Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Japanese Communist Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.