South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cdac73978f8e41f18b3a0b10a9e9bdb082c67cc06f579acbfd03da59ada4fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 59c | 9,327$5,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,504.52 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 5,468$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 830.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.8 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…f736backed Yes | 59c | 829.22$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 667.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.49 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 48c | 525.08$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.52 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Yes | 76c | 395.16$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…86bcbacked Yes | 49c | 364.06$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 332.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 20c | 312.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.46 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 27c | 275$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 227$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.25 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 31c | 191.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 36c | 180.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed No | 49c | 168.57$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 162$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 32c | 127.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 49c | 123.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 89.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 19c | 84.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 56c | 75.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 26c | 70.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 40c | 63.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 60.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…88c5backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 50.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 37c | 44.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 38c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x697d…8ec5backed Yes | 39c | 38.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 69c | 26.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 66c | 24.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed Yes | 56c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 72c | 16.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.