Premier League · resolved market
Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1559235793153ec68b2bd27f349b533c88f933b27923df78bcf6ef7fefc6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,782$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.6 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 67c | 3,113$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.35 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 43c | 1,703$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.79 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed Yes | 4c | 1,325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 31c | 1,010$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8a…0724backed Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 33c | 770$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Yes | 34c | 592.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b49…d151backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 367.01$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 45c | 302.52$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.71 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 69c | 295.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 39c | 256.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 33c | 220.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 199$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 32c | 168.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 160.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…f297backed No | 67c | 160.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 135.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 285 | 31.2%89 W · 196 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 30c | 113.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 89.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 59c | 84.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked No | 68c | 79.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 30c | 46.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed No | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stoke City FC win on 2026-01-21?this page
- Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-01-21?Yes won
- Will Stoke City FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.