Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3514988f5f5e0b1ec45741c8680349ddbd47cebd0c1b0a5187731ac951d8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed No | 34c | 729.79$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 44c | 394.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 56c | 391.65$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.33 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 70c | 359.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.87 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 68c | 276.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 256.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 227.6$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 167.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 59c | 155.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 153.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 113.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Yes | 77c | 113.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 111.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 72c | 107.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 27c | 104.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 19c | 103.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 103.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 28c | 102.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 100.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648b…6672backed Yes | 16c | 88.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 27c | 85.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 83.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 30c | 80.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 65.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 60.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 68c | 59.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 71c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 32c | 53.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 51.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 59c | 50.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 78c | 43.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 37c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 41c | 39.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 38.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 38.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 52c | 35.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 59c | 32.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 27.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 61c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.