Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46a8437ca687752115642d3a32895db476e163ebc87df0026a4699db23c1520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 970.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 48c | 431.57$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 329.13$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 68c | 294.35$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 44c | 264.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 62c | 188.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 30c | 146.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 145.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 134.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 38c | 133.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 117.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 44c | 101.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…fefebacked No | 65c | 99.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 78.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 31c | 76.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 71.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 46c | 65.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 42c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 63.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 54.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 40c | 51.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 23c | 49.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 47.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 45.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 42.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 30c | 37.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 34.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 32.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 55c | 30.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 42c | 29.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 27.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…07f0backed Yes | 61c | 25.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 25.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 45c | 23.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed No | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.