TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,102 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbcb8…3058backed Philadelphia Phillies75c830$623 inLost-$622.517354.9%95 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-13.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Philadelphia Phillies57c403.51$230 inLost-$23063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates44c312.12$137 inWon+$175.411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Philadelphia Phillies52c274$143 inLost-$143.331,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates50c99.99$50 inWon+$49.992,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates32c81.49$26 inWon+$55.2812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c81$17 inWon+$63.9979255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a6…6684backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c77.54$51 inWon+$26.265581.8%45 W · 10 L+11.4wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+29.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1a01…1a3cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates78c76.73$60 inWon+$16.9310143.6%44 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba9…1303backed Philadelphia Phillies28c60.07$17 inLost-$16.682356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates33c41.67$14 inWon+$28.0777836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Philadelphia Phillies46c30.56$14 inLost-$13.963429.4%10 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.