MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852a397883615a8451ec9c321a9a0ba255d466267162ae11179889cdb39a65b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 55c | 107,137$58,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,211.49 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 100,000$45,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,000 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700.05 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 9,164$4,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,307.3 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 7,925$3,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,588.97 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 3,373$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.06 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 3,241$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.07 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 49c | 3,144$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.13 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 47c | 2,448$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.89 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 1,795$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 1,744$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.13 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 1,724$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.2 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.1 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 46c | 1,540$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.94 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 51c | 1,181$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.49 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 54c | 1,150$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.17 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 51c | 979.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.12 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 680.72$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.36 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 598$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 478.07$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 454.05$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.6 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 53c | 419.02$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.36 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 50c | 370.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 354$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 57c | 345.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 340$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 292.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 258.21$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.11 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,141 | 46.3%528 W · 613 L | +36.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…6706backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 48c | 105.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 101.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…5648backed Over | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 48c | 83.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 65c | 80.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 40c | 60.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 53c | 57.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 54.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…b876backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 46c | 49.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Over | 55c | 39.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Under | 47c | 36.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 55c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 50c | 34.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 50c | 32.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 45c | 29.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 39c | 26.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 21.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 321 | 53.9%173 W · 148 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 55c | 20.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.