MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6acd974089137b95990837b1bdbd79d2564319221b9ace6f44ec14704f698e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 3,420$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.8 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 2,535$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.66 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 1,103$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.88 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 291.89$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 199.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 125.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 118.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 107$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 83.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 74.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 66.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 59.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 48.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 39.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba9…1303backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 39.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e57…4685backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.