MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbebfed3eb608b79eaebbb916e9740efab079cd32065abeda93a1d0b2449489
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes | 51c | 157.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…047ebacked No | 50c | 142.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 52c | 134$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 49c | 93.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…95d7backed Yes | 51c | 30.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Yes | 51c | 30.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bc…afb5backed Yes | 51c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed Yes | 51c | 27.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…94cabacked Yes | 51c | 27.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…28cdbacked Yes | 51c | 27.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…5ae3backed Yes | 51c | 26.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Yes | 51c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5645backed Yes | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 49c | 26.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8c…7a0cbacked Yes | 51c | 25.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Yes | 51c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Yes | 51c | 24.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…b7d4backed Yes | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Yes | 51c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…40adbacked Yes | 51c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18af…af4dbacked Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19a…1b94backed Yes | 51c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…bed7backed Yes | 51c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Yes | 51c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…c19bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.