MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf55c30a164f17a2f812583bc08bedda4c7036db9ac39cef632e48d3549d3a21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 44c | 30,841$13,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,272.87 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 25,813$14,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,454.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,805$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 56c | 1,165$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.39 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 1,016$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.85 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 46c | 929.36$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.29 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 56c | 486.23$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.29 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Under | 64c | 360.87$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.96 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 306.53$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 240.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 227.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 59c | 148.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 64c | 143.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 126.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Under | 59c | 116.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 44c | 111.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 56c | 99.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c6…737abacked Under | 21c | 71.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -13.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 52.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 52.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 53c | 42.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 50c | 40.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Under | 38c | 40.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 56c | 39.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 37.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…cfbfbacked Over | 43c | 31.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.