South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7d307368d0adb1bd350a139c120af2f0a1f59e7e46920b01ee25ec09b03a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 11c | 21,868$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.24 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 17c | 21,450$3,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,592.95 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Yes | 19c | 8,764$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.96 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 17c | 4,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,798$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.87 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 15c | 2,101$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.68 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 12c | 1,870$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,775$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.74 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,695$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,648$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 4c | 1,589$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 12c | 1,564$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,495$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 10c | 975.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 4c | 820$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 7c | 716.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 16c | 629.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Yes | 10c | 616.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 4c | 583.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 16c | 543.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…e3cfbacked Yes | 11c | 485.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 6c | 404.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…b180backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 17c | 276$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 10c | 256$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ad…a26ebacked Yes | 5c | 243.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…e991backed Yes | 6c | 237.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked Yes | 16c | 221.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Yes | 16c | 216.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Yes | 10c | 198.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 30c | 166.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 20c | 162$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 18c | 138$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 17c | 123.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…4bf2backed Yes | 15c | 98.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Yes | 11c | 96.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 17c | 96.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 16c | 86.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 16c | 84.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 78c | 82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…bb8cbacked Yes | 17c | 68.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 70c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-23?this page
- Will Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.