South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x953398691a8b3fbac0515e46f2a72becb3970415838c265c1e2239764b4aab5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 23c | 4,338$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.74 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 29c | 4,276$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.77 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 75c | 3,623$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.92 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…3668backed No | 78c | 3,210$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 22c | 2,272$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.83 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,261$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.07 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 74c | 1,695$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.12 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,618$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.56 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,527$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 25c | 1,204$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 22c | 815.61$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 682.5$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.17 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Yes | 24c | 467$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…564dbacked Yes | 13c | 455.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 455.06$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 15c | 336.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Yes | 15c | 336.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 12c | 288.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 18c | 198.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 8c | 189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 26c | 182.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 78c | 160.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 27c | 155.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 140.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…fa68backed Yes | 11c | 132.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 76c | 128$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 26c | 125.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…fd97backed Yes | 14c | 103.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…f431backed Yes | 11c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 91.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 11c | 90.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 77c | 89.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Yes | 14c | 82.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…216abacked No | 77c | 71.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 71c | 69.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Yes | 29c | 66.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 23c | 58.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 22c | 49.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b91…fb9dbacked Yes | 23c | 43.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 31.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…fd8fbacked No | 77c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 77c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 71c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…d1a7backed No | 78c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…6e6abacked No | 72c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 76c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 78c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked No | 76c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Bolívar vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-07-23?Yes won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-07-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.