NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dac1ecfc23ddbaf2af539c4561855ba1bab14ac8281efd903b644a6f83bb027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Colts | 49c | 25,075$12,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,788.25 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Raiders | 51c | 25,000$12,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,750 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Raiders | 53c | 7,624$4,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,035.52 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Colts | 47c | 7,000$3,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.99 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 46c | 2,324$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.19 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Raiders | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Colts | 47c | 1,885$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.05 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Raiders | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f58…187cbacked Colts | 50c | 596.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Colts | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Raiders | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Raiders | 51c | 135$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Raiders | 53c | 133$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…d771backed Raiders | 53c | 123.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…9910backed Raiders | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colts | 42c | 103.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Raiders | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked Colts | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Colts | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b38…a660backed Raiders | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Raiders | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Raiders | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Raiders | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raiders | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3113backed Colts | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ColtsColts won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.