NFL · resolved market
Spread: Colts (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19faaae523757500b197c49d69fbf91906a6909ad9a052f5ff841c8a88f0af17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Colts, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders | 45c | 13,137$5,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.65 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Colts | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colts | 55c | 5,723$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,575.45 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Raiders | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Raiders | 44c | 4,940$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.93 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Raiders | 45c | 4,500$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Colts | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.43 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Colts | 56c | 2,606$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.83 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6fa3backed Colts | 56c | 2,591$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Colts | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Colts | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colts | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Colts | 56c | 450$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Colts | 56c | 427.11$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked Colts | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Colts | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Colts | 56c | 285.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 44c | 230$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Colts | 56c | 227$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Colts | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Raiders | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Colts | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Colts | 51c | 86.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Colts | 53c | 70.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Colts | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Raiders | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Colts | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Colts | 56c | 45.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Raiders | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f5…6905backed Colts | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Colts | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Colts | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Colts | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…0f2dbacked Colts | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…e85ebacked Colts | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colts (-6.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ColtsColts won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Colts: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-3.5)Colts won
- Spread: Colts (-7.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.