Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db3c1eb2c9529aa1506cab3c5d1c12c461b76016f2003e4ce2c71633bc71cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,413$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 331.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 68c | 331.14$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.1 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 15c | 315.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.06 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 282.64$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 250.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 15c | 177.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.71 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 164.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 157.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 149.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 146.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 137.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 11c | 124.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 118.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 76c | 102.32$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 101.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 99.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 98.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 89.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 85.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 21c | 79.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 77.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 69.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 61.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…31c1backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 53.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 77c | 51.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 25c | 49.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 36.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 78c | 33.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 43c | 33.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 37c | 29.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 21.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 19.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 70c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 17.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.