Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b26e3a07240e41e1d3979b012a9a6786f683d42aca31e1894bf4ce1ba50993c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 207.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 173.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 80c | 159.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 22c | 159.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 32c | 148.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 29c | 133.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 131.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 110.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 71c | 91.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 20c | 87.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 86.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 84.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 83.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 32c | 79.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 73.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 72.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 70.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 70.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 27c | 62.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 57.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 31c | 54.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 28c | 54.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 73c | 53.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 50.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 50.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 27c | 48.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 47.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 76c | 46.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 76c | 45.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 45.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 34.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 28.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 26.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 25.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 69c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 69c | 23.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 21.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 69c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.