Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e91ab9c1eae207d69f53f48da4117fbec63aaa53e3e842a5646155f82dd8ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 67c | 497.37$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.94 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 250.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 179.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 131.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 129.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.31 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 112.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 47c | 112.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 103.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 100.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 19c | 89.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 57c | 88.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed No | 61c | 87.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 82.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 60c | 77.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 72.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 70.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 68.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 63.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 48c | 56.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 55.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 43c | 55.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 79c | 55.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 54.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 23c | 51.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 51.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 55c | 49.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 49.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 45.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 59c | 43.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 42.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 53c | 41.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 58c | 39.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 38.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc238…68eabacked No | 56c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 49c | 27.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 41c | 26.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 62c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…1ff4backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 64c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c0a7backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 19.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 58c | 18.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 17.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…0822backed No | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.