MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db4279d0b3af5d8780fc158a2dcd4041f8178d0b65035248f1223020957c821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 2,502$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.72 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 2,359$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.65 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,770$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.8 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,265$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.56 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,084$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 943.22$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.07 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 738.81$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.42 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 735.31$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 643.65$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.41 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 400.76$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.92 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 294$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 142.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 127$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13a…dbdfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 104$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…4b53backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…e59bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…76fabacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 62.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…5391backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…6d35backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.