TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,988 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes54c490.87$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2321436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No52c405.78$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.9431542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c391.65$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes40c367.62$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.641,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No29c274.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.911,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes39c260.19$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.266,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes33c253.92$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.271,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes60c251.65$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1119047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked No73c246.02$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c232.94$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11012,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes47c221.27$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0629640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes40c193.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.461,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c184.85$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.911,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes54c177.15$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No12c175.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes47c157.14$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.261,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes51c155$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.97542.7%32 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No42c127.56$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7764021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No51c121.52$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.451,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes47c119.9$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.059626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No58c114.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No52c109.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.81,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes47c102.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c99.89$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9356265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes62c99.81$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes49c99.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.441,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes36c98.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…66f9backed Yes60c97.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8212932.6%42 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes40c91.65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.678,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes29c88.12$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5642315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No48c81.09$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.291,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes49c79.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5613930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes51c74.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.681,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes53c72.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.431560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ff…1acdbacked No51c70.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.574748.9%23 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c69.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.227,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes42c56.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9530046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes43c54.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No51c53.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.183,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e93…78a6backed Yes40c53.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.576418.8%12 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-48.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26e9…bd8cbacked No42c51.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.751346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb5…57eabacked No45c51.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes37c49.55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No62c49.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4819152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c15…1116backed No57c47.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6209…e82fbacked No46c46.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.551827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed No49c44.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9810444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes53c44.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.775261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No36c43.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.761,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46b9…b865backed Yes52c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7e…547fbacked Yes29c41.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.57650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+234.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.816065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked No46c39.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.292850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes37c39.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.593132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a3…fc4abacked No63c38.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3213059.2%77 W · 53 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-14.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No49c37.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.612068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes58c36.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.694647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes78c36.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.192646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No53c36.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4323349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes37c35.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3442438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes80c35.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.181,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No57c33.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa11e…1b2dbacked No61c32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.526549.2%32 W · 33 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x497f…d987backed Yes33c30.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.762733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes47c30.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0212147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No58c29.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3621068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed No65c28.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.746376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No62c28.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Yes43c27.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.813554.8%74 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d52…c5aabacked No64c27.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4810359.2%61 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No65c26.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1726169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No49c26.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.817546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No49c25.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4211925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No66c25.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6715477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes57c25.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No65c24.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No54c24.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.995062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4925…8f6cbacked No63c23.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.889858.2%57 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No49c23.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3811449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No61c22.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4841460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cbf…981cbacked No62c22.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8380%0 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed No60c21.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No57c21.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.015349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes51c20.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108432.1%27 W · 57 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No61c19.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3410…f999backed No66c18.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes68c18.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7924066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.