Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e19c45fa7ee2ad5cfb042604f61af8d92a8bc34dbc0240a38b67b761a404644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 54c | 490.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.23 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 52c | 405.78$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 391.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 40c | 367.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.64 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 274.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 260.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 253.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 60c | 251.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 73c | 246.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.31 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 232.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 221.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 193.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 184.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 54c | 177.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 12c | 175.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 157.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 51c | 155$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 42c | 127.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 121.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 47c | 119.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 58c | 114.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 109.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 47c | 102.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 99.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 99.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 49c | 99.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 36c | 98.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 60c | 97.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 91.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 29c | 88.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 81.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 49c | 79.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 74.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 53c | 72.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 51c | 70.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 69.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 42c | 56.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 43c | 54.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 53.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 40c | 53.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked No | 42c | 51.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb5…57eabacked No | 45c | 51.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 49.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…1116backed No | 57c | 47.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 46c | 46.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 49c | 44.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 53c | 44.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 43.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…b865backed Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…547fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 46c | 39.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 37c | 39.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 63c | 38.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 58c | 36.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 78c | 36.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 53c | 36.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 35.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 80c | 35.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 57c | 33.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 33c | 30.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 47c | 30.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 58c | 29.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 65c | 28.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 28.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 43c | 27.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 64c | 27.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 49c | 26.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 49c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 66c | 25.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 57c | 25.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 24.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 63c | 23.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 49c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 61c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…981cbacked No | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 60c | 21.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 57c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 51c | 20.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 19.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…f999backed No | 66c | 18.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 68c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.