Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c257ea5d9a803e2cce5e4a432fba06b98f01d0a5341389a1a13dfa7f40849ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 617.45$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 510.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 29c | 390.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 376.27$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 66c | 294.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.12 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 278.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 270.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 257.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 225.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked Yes | 22c | 222.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed No | 52c | 200.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 194.55$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 75c | 190.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed No | 72c | 165.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 158.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 157.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 22c | 152.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 152.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 135.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 129.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 126.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 126.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 115.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 104.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 46c | 103.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 103.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 102.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 101.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 82.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 29c | 79.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb62b…09f5backed No | 76c | 72.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 72.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 71.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 27c | 69.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 75c | 63.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 61c | 62.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 61.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 57.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 56.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 55.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 32c | 52.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed No | 76c | 49.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 76c | 47.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 72c | 46.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 25c | 44.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 78c | 44.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 26c | 40.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…f999backed No | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 38.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 29c | 34.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 33.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 42c | 33.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 31.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 53c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 28.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 27.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 71c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 26.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…bd8cbacked No | 74c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…ba31backed No | 76c | 25.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 75c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 24.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 54c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 68c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 76c | 20.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked No | 76c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 75c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 71c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 79c | 17.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.