WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e1a5d10e0c8ebe5ab34904f3006186c5cf4f23b1de685cc8bb265175b8bb1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Las Vegas Acesof Las Vegas Aces, Dallas Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Dallas Wings | 43c | 7,393$3,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,185.97 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0de…8048backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 5,744$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.89 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 2,626$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.69 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Wings | 44c | 840$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.6 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Dallas Wings | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 545.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.39 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings | 44c | 511.49$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.84 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Dallas Wings | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Dallas Wings | 43c | 272$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dallas Wings | 42c | 250.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Dallas Wings | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Dallas Wings | 43c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Dallas Wings | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Dallas Wings | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…5ae6backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…a345backed Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 48.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Dallas Wings | 44c | 41.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Dallas Wings | 44c | 40.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Dallas Wings | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Dallas Wings | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 23.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5)this page
- Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces won
- Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 175.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5Over won
- Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5Over won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Las Vegas Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.