TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Las Vegas Acesof Dallas Wings, Las Vegas Aces
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,266

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed Dallas Wings13c20,641$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.4734726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x55bb…bc01backed Dallas Wings37c9,073$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,349.631656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Dallas Wings12c7,374$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.5410340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d53…eb1abacked Dallas Wings35c7,300$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,554.994535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces64c6,743$4,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.81,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Las Vegas Aces71c5,889$4,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.3199548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Dallas Wings17c5,838$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Dallas Wings33c5,090$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7004829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Dallas Wings33c4,841$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.5332049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Las Vegas Aces68c4,413$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.988762.1%54 W · 33 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Dallas Wings18c4,055$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.0512144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Wings13c3,633$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.6119428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Las Vegas Aces67c3,555$2,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.142382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5400…8a89backed Dallas Wings5c3,091$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.11214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-83%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Dallas Wings34c3,000$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.995156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dallas Wings19c2,335$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0313844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Wings16c1,964$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.041,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Dallas Wings9c1,776$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8412045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Dallas Wings13c1,741$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2207520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Dallas Wings19c1,613$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3126437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Dallas Wings2c1,550$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2544915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Las Vegas Aces67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.993961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Las Vegas Aces67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces67c1,419$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Dallas Wings17c1,287$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.6678548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Dallas Wings22c1,211$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0436454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Dallas Wings25c1,176$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Las Vegas Aces68c1,112$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9612165.3%79 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Las Vegas Aces77c1,067$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.959129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Dallas Wings17c1,005$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.719318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Dallas Wings22c985$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5621446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Las Vegas Aces76c983.97$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2344353.5%23 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Las Vegas Aces67c951.79$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Dallas Wings32c949.48$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.836549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Dallas Wings23c860$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.810838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dallas Wings16c843$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4126147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Dallas Wings18c829.01$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8489349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Dallas Wings33c756.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces67c661.29$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.2383748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed Dallas Wings31c645.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002552%13 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa81c…3d28backed Las Vegas Aces77c642.99$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Dallas Wings24c616.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507435.1%26 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Las Vegas Aces67c600$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1989251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Dallas Wings17c595.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005633.9%19 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Las Vegas Aces74c575.01$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6685158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Dallas Wings34c555$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.78657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Dallas Wings18c538.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1911841.5%49 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Dallas Wings33c526.18$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.647746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Dallas Wings18c516.71$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.962138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Dallas Wings5c508.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Las Vegas Aces67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.762777.8%21 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Las Vegas Aces79c432.54$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.945642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Dallas Wings34c412.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.224146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…50febacked Dallas Wings33c401.61$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-82%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Dallas Wings33c399.91$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9714148.9%69 W · 72 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Las Vegas Aces67c390$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.77450%37 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Las Vegas Aces67c373$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0914942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Las Vegas Aces66c350$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1192458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…d417backed Las Vegas Aces68c342.65$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.651172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Dallas Wings21c320.99$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9925246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Dallas Wings34c296.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Dallas Wings32c287.45$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9840550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Dallas Wings16c281.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc9…cda3backed Dallas Wings14c276$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Las Vegas Aces67c258.69$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.3723245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfffa…17c5backed Dallas Wings15c241.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ce…e4b0backed Dallas Wings34c206.95$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Las Vegas Aces67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Dallas Wings21c187.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Las Vegas Aces80c175.28$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.284269%29 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Dallas Wings29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Wings18c171$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.516633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x572b…77e1backed Dallas Wings12c168$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces80c159.14$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f2…042ebacked Las Vegas Aces68c154.6$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.471266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac7…3ef9backed Dallas Wings33c154$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.822740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Las Vegas Aces67c151.52$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Dallas Wings33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x88cb…d3a2backed Dallas Wings33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Dallas Wings33c151$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.836741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd981…c309backed Las Vegas Aces67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Las Vegas Aces68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Las Vegas Aces68c145.59$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.595766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Las Vegas Aces71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Dallas Wings15c133.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4934918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6182…0633backed Las Vegas Aces65c125$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4d…51a0backed Las Vegas Aces67c104.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e49…421ebacked Las Vegas Aces67c104.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.482365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Dallas Wings17c101.84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1232150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Dallas Wings15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Dallas Wings15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158535.3%30 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Las Vegas Aces70c97.72$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9713358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed Las Vegas Aces68c97.04$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.05850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Dallas Wings13c93.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2241147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Dallas Wings19c90$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.117350.3%87 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Dallas Wings34c88.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.233265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Las Vegas Aces68c79.41$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.411968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Las Vegas Aces67c79.08$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.14555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Dallas Wings17c79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4119031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Las Vegas Aces67c77.01$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.418953.9%48 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.