Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e38085e8ad0b0491607567183de2ca66b35b4aa0269875d3b0c192e809757cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 59c | 2,390$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.83 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 668.18$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 649.42$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 571$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 553$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.58 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 48c | 309.49$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.27 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 47c | 280.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 50c | 269$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 252.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 223.2$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed No | 46c | 148.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 50c | 141.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 136.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 132.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 130.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 39c | 129.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 127.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 125.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 115.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 23c | 102.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 94.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 89.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed Yes | 52c | 83.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 53c | 71.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 69.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 42c | 69.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…25f9backed No | 47c | 65.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 63.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 61.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 57.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 48c | 56.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 55.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 49c | 54.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 48.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 51c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 42c | 46.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 45.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 44.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 39.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 39.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 47c | 37.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 37.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 35.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 29.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 51c | 25.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…49c5backed Yes | 50c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 39c | 25.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 24.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 22.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 49c | 22.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 21.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 57c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.