Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e445169029e9e71f25d9ae3c7e2f2226bcc929eb6e90410856dadae1f0e9bf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Team Nemesis, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Team Nemesis | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.99 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Vici Gaming | 71c | 1,448$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.06 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Vici Gaming | 73c | 681.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.59 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Vici Gaming | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Vici Gaming | 71c | 314.38$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Vici Gaming | 63c | 291.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.86 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Nemesis | 32c | 199.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Vici Gaming | 72c | 195.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 163.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Vici Gaming | 58c | 128.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Team Nemesis | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vici Gaming | 67c | 105.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Vici Gaming | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Team Nemesis | 36c | 95.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Vici Gaming | 63c | 80.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Vici Gaming | 78c | 64.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Vici Gaming | 63c | 63.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Nemesis | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked Vici Gaming | 71c | 46.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Vici Gaming | 70c | 43.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Vici Gaming | 71c | 42.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…9d8bbacked Vici Gaming | 75c | 37.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Nemesis | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Vici Gaming | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…4883backed Vici Gaming | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 26.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Vici Gaming | 41c | 25.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Vici Gaming | 75c | 24.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 22.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Vici Gaming | 59c | 17.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.