Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e4bbf070c8032e7ce7ea7cde45587a9a50147ecfa2aa13a4dd6057a3d26874e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 68c | 1,472$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.07 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 656.75$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 10c | 522.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 2c | 500.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 258.04$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 238$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 237.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…bd0fbacked No | 9c | 217.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 211.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 175.09$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 166.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 143.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…6f34backed No | 12c | 138.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 136.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 28c | 108.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 106.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…91cfbacked No | 73c | 106.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 99.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 82.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 80.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 37c | 70.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 69.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 68.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 17c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 64.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 60.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 52.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed No | 57c | 40.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…e470backed Yes | 52c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 35c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 29.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 72c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 28.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 19.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.