Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8ff71c6c15cd15b59956a0aa092c4f84a1d174cb9f46cda9ac11a29224e5be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 1,014$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 589.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 341.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 5c | 300.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 76c | 287.44$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 285.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…583dbacked Yes | 37c | 254.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 71c | 161.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 157.47$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 80c | 154.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 20c | 153.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 151.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 75c | 150.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…5753backed No | 70c | 143.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 32c | 125.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 123.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Yes | 13c | 110.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 94.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 93.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 85.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 77.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 76.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c27…b565backed No | 71c | 76.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 71.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 68.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…d76ebacked Yes | 46c | 68.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 33c | 61.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 59.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 25c | 58.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 34c | 56.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 51.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 43.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 39.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 69c | 38.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 43c | 35.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 33.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…1524backed Yes | 30c | 33.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 31.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 29.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 69c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 20.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed No | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.