MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6a36310d5700e5476205dc877a86bda9631c4d496d9f03f5bbee271e55fb82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.85 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 63c | 517.06$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 501$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 385.15$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 25c | 264.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 35c | 251.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 78c | 143$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 42c | 126.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 61c | 97.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 58c | 49.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.