MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb659d8e5183a4e4e7926984389b3451327721248337f080eca2a88ddebd2a132
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 9,917$5,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…3269backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 8,365$3,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,559.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…322bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 2,300$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.99 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,530$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.87 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 1,146$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.34 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 1,126$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 1,083$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,072$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.96 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 1,024$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 962.34$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.94 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 813.53$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 699.99$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 35c | 693.27$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.72 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 625$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 498.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 483.34$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 403.71$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 390$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…97b6backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 258.52$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…a25cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 237.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 232.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 211.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 190.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 181.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 180.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 151.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 138.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 138.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 19c | 125.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 107.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 105.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 86.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 71.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 70.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 69.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 63.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 58.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 55.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 51.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…1b08backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 47.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 46.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 43.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…9e39backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 40.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 31.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 31.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…f967backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 31.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 25.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…c8d0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.