MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6589d6dc9d7410a7168c427b8cd872a1d22d933577ee205aa68405034e8f1586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 50c | 9,389$4,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,694.42 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 6,402$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.42 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 58c | 5,185$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185.05 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 3,842$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.45 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 818.32$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.61 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 771.03$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 464.48$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 36c | 456.33$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 51c | 410.94$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.36 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 50c | 399.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.37 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 319.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 317.54$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 51c | 219.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 204.52$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 50c | 200.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 199$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 42c | 181.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 49c | 174$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 46c | 160.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 145$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 126.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 50c | 118.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 50c | 109.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 53c | 98.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 60c | 97.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 51c | 97.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 50c | 93.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 50c | 89.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 88.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 67.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 63c | 65.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 50c | 50.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 50c | 49.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 50c | 33.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 49c | 27.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Over | 50c | 24.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…ac42backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 64c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.