MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771a2c8bdda07827e89954692c17cd85cd79d56c62580eaeb891dd87fe398d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 63c | 21,767$13,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,716.73 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 17,961$6,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,296.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 2,135$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 982$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…291ebacked Over | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 61c | 818$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 40c | 616.83$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.1 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 40c | 399.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 60c | 396$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 363.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 38c | 343.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 41c | 317.87$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 36c | 295.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 37c | 272.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.66 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 262.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 63c | 262$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Under | 46c | 224.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.17 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 35c | 182.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 42c | 176.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 36c | 176$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 41c | 169.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 59c | 167.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 39c | 130$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 64c | 121.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 40c | 88.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 66c | 80.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 61c | 75.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 61c | 66.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 61c | 57.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 61c | 57.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 47c | 53.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 59c | 52.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 43.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 42.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 61c | 30.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Over | 54c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…078bbacked Over | 61c | 24.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 67c | 24.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 59c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.