Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6b4320caf335d47468141f988ca2336944c8d0b9d36fd66176f34179dbaf1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,017$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 415.85$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.78 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 319.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 233.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 62c | 229.33$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 203.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 199.84$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 60c | 163.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 39c | 145.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 144.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…9953backed Yes | 76c | 132.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…6fb8backed Yes | 76c | 131.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 87.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 87.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 76.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 75.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 69c | 71.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…4f21backed No | 71c | 68.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 20c | 65.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 53c | 64.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 24c | 60.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 51c | 59.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 36c | 58.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 36c | 54.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 42c | 46.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 45c | 45.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 43.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 40.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 40.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 29.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 47c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 53c | 24.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 78c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 69c | 20.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 79c | 16.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.