Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e760be3ffd8279caa8c5fd00b0f819c5b4c03ca3cd8f291c6d31f2f3e1acec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 1c | 2,372$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 1c | 994.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.76 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 57c | 642.29$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 385.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 353.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 275.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 211.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 197.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 14c | 165.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 156.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 14c | 150.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 145$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 18c | 123.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 119.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 115.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 66c | 115.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 78c | 105.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 47c | 99.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 48c | 98.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 91.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 21c | 78.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 43c | 76.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 56c | 72.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 27c | 70.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 68c | 67.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 62c | 64.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 57.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 47c | 50.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 36.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 30.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 27.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…bafcbacked Yes | 50c | 26.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 24.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 60c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe494…529cbacked Yes | 73c | 22.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.