Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64505a884c1676fc7e492375dc1a253fb9a14f552284f3377733162f68b5cca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 20c | 856.27$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 490.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 310$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 305.01$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 6c | 173.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 151.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 8c | 145.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 32c | 144.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 79c | 129.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 121.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 35c | 113.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 112.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 30c | 103.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 30c | 99.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 73.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 20c | 69.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 18c | 64.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 62.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 72c | 51.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 50.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 50.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 43.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 26.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 12.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.