Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe47cdd7c32d63a546b7e1471e45bff13fe5c32ee25918c75411ec00dd16c6a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 24c | 272.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 266.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 17c | 204$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 202.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 194.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 179.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 166.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 8c | 157.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 17c | 144.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 74c | 142.79$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 19c | 136.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 11c | 135.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 131.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 25c | 129.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 118.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 118.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 16c | 117.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 107.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 20c | 100.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 95.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 78.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 34c | 76.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 73.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 24c | 71.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 67.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 17c | 67.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 19c | 60.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 60.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 26c | 55.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 53.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 51.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 50.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 45.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 42.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 41.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 38.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd406…2fc9backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 76c | 29.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 26.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.