Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b2e1e1c637d93d9e1204234096f61862e95e0a5b75f6d33dc8ab804f8207c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 577.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 64c | 354.74$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 310$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 309.41$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 264$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 67c | 213.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 10c | 208.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 198.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 24c | 184.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 156.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 70c | 154.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 150.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 148.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 38c | 142.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 29c | 129.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 31c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 99.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 68c | 93.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 92.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 92.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 65c | 88.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 22c | 82.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 37c | 82.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 66.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 64.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 32c | 63.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 63.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 62.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 57.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 51.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…cb52backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 49.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 34c | 48.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 43.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed No | 69c | 42.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 36c | 41.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 39.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…1b70backed No | 78c | 38.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 75c | 32.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 72c | 31.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 70c | 31.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…07c5backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed No | 71c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 61c | 22.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 65c | 21.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 67c | 20.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 19.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.