Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9446474b2c0822fb3134ac1ff58b1b6256956fb0d58f77f96b3ab73ef1508f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 53c | 284$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 47c | 255.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 117.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 51c | 104.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 100.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 98.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 23c | 95.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 89.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 86.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 53c | 82.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 47c | 75.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 74.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 35c | 72.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 62.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed No | 59c | 61.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 60.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 59.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 46c | 53.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 68c | 48.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 47.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 54c | 43.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 41.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 38.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 39c | 35.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 43c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 24.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 47c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 46c | 22.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 62c | 18.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.