TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,521 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex37c2,734$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.241,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Spirit64c2,000$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27064744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit55c1,789$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.3535850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Yandex37c1,587$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.0750053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Spirit63c1,103$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.7324246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Yandex43c937.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.391,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Team Spirit64c920.72$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.266541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Spirit62c864.03$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.710040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Yandex47c755$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.11,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Yandex38c637.91$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.3430357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Spirit63c540.54$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.5426846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x697f…e44ebacked Team Spirit65c366.47$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24011159.5%66 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda24…737abacked Team Yandex38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.163441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Team Spirit62c251$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.825956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2b…d422backed Team Spirit53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.514845.9%68 W · 80 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Yandex41c250$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.541864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Team Spirit56c249.43$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6810735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e79…1763backed Team Yandex40c244.08$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.141758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Team Spirit63c239$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5725354.5%138 W · 115 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team Yandex34c230.47$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1118830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Team Spirit63c180$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.726741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f90…4c92backed Team Yandex46c174.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1414136.9%52 W · 89 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9755…ab85backed Team Spirit64c157$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.482339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a91…3eb7backed Team Spirit64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006866.2%45 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Team Yandex36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.893336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Team Yandex37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1459556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f1f…57c1backed Team Yandex37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.143228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Team Yandex45c120$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0650444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Team Spirit62c119.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3219547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Team Yandex37c115.02$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.537252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Yandex37c107.34$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.169052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Team Spirit62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210446.2%48 W · 56 L-11.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Yandex41c99.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9967555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bed…7574backed Team Spirit66c91.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+88.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Team Yandex38c83.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9829352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b7…fd5ebacked Team Spirit64c74.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.813740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Yandex39c72.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1440534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Team Spirit61c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.657147.9%34 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Spirit62c64.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Yandex64c60.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9343860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d72…a791backed Team Spirit59c55.29$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed90…429ebacked Team Spirit65c53.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Team Spirit33c48.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…1813backed Team Spirit63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Team Spirit47c42.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.853056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Yandex37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5422260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2291…bd56backed Team Spirit62c40.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e8…e69cbacked Team Yandex42c34.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.843167.7%21 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Team Spirit58c34.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8452950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7a…ad96backed Team Yandex38c32.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Spirit63c30.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0437745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Team Spirit59c24.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+29.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89d3…072dbacked Team Yandex69c15.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.