TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$418,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$540,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef27…381bbacked Team Yandex64c49,407$31,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,586.013154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Team Spirit35c47,685$16,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,689.694445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex64c23,327$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,326.961,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Team Spirit23c17,654$4,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1061942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Spirit36c12,040$4,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,334.5627645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ff…473dbacked Team Spirit37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.971020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Team Spirit17c8,341$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4184037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Yandex64c8,100$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.9913960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…d48fbacked Team Spirit27c7,929$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Team Yandex65c7,581$4,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,653.3614258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Spirit36c7,409$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.0964744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed Team Spirit43c7,351$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.824850%24 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Team Yandex65c7,000$4,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed Team Yandex64c6,576$4,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.721258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Yandex65c5,660$3,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.6230357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Team Spirit16c5,560$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.6426540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Team Spirit36c5,117$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8421729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Team Spirit35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7504161%25 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Team Spirit37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9915544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Spirit36c4,992$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.198536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Team Spirit37c4,962$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.783644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Team Yandex65c4,615$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.3811359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked Team Yandex63c3,905$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.7622450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Yandex65c3,864$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.2429160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Spirit37c3,500$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.9736248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Yandex61c3,399$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.531,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Yandex61c3,280$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.259254.1%320 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Spirit36c3,200$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15215848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Team Spirit17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Yandex69c2,984$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Team Spirit36c2,800$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0086653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed Team Spirit36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex62c2,713$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.661,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Spirit35c2,621$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.3129143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Team Spirit16c2,482$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.122356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Team Spirit16c2,440$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.41136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Spirit17c2,412$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41072035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Team Spirit16c2,351$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.163452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Team Spirit36c2,319$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.746726.9%18 W · 49 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Yandex59c2,133$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.841,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4b…5345backed Team Yandex66c2,072$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.891258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Team Spirit23c2,020$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3912146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Team Yandex63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7402138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Spirit35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70023736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Spirit35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Spirit37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74019742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex72c1,844$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.21,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Spirit34c1,757$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.11,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…7d37backed Team Yandex64c1,737$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.3220233.2%67 W · 135 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Yandex68c1,666$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.3469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Team Yandex62c1,642$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.969340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Team Spirit31c1,612$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.724753.2%25 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Spirit36c1,589$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.869052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Team Yandex63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.311656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Yandex63c1,582$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.1747660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Yandex68c1,407$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.431,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Team Yandex63c1,367$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.673969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Yandex75c1,340$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.5443860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6027…78a0backed Team Yandex62c1,269$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.551850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Yandex63c1,224$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.9961449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240b…c32abacked Team Spirit30c1,186$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505850%29 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabac…879cbacked Team Yandex63c1,138$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.071060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Team Yandex66c1,068$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.251662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Team Yandex64c1,058$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.558048.8%39 W · 41 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Yandex73c1,056$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.81,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit23c1,048$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.21,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Team Spirit29c1,035$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Team Spirit43c1,021$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.855048%24 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3be…12ccbacked Team Spirit37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37011142.3%47 W · 64 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Team Spirit35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010040%40 W · 60 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Team Spirit27c999.99$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.35740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Spirit35c999.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9926846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf206…df39backed Team Yandex64c914.06$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.0616963.3%107 W · 62 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Spirit15c901.11$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1737811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Spirit19c880.24$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4689238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Team Yandex59c844.89$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.422363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f1d…3533backed Team Yandex66c815.35$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed Team Yandex73c791$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.573043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a53…1b12backed Team Spirit16c756.13$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.985234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Team Spirit35c720$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Team Yandex65c715.44$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.0129352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Yandex63c714$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1880443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Yandex74c671.96$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9646451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked Team Spirit18c650$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11716139.8%64 W · 97 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked Team Spirit20c640$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1284632.6%15 W · 31 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Team Yandex62c639.99$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex79c627.65$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Yandex63c627.59$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2111253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Spirit17c619.04$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0537018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd417…327abacked Team Yandex65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3810641.5%44 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc35d…7918backed Team Yandex65c603.94$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit37c599.99$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21946240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Spirit30c574.35$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5441455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Team Spirit35c570$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0e…2330backed Team Spirit38c560$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.85639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Spirit35c548$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.143049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f90…a39fbacked Team Yandex65c538.46$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.4614563.4%92 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Yandex70c523.24$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5437745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Team Spirit34c519.07$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8419249%94 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.