TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,051
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,051 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays64c964.97$618 inLost-$617.5888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pittsburgh Pirates36c865.97$313 inWon+$553.312,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays57c827.07$473 inLost-$473.2112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates40c590$239 inWon+$351.478,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c400$240 inWon+$16017545.7%80 W · 95 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays40c381.85$153 inLost-$152.6210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates67c256$171 inWon+$85.426,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates38c229.81$87 inWon+$142.489,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Toronto Blue Jays32c210.52$68 inLost-$68.2199624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays64c156.25$100 inLost-$1003,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Pittsburgh Pirates29c99$29 inWon+$70.291,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates75c97.03$73 inWon+$23.788,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates21c65$14 inWon+$51.2568942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates64c59.99$39 inWon+$21.482741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates38c52.6$20 inWon+$32.615,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a61…e6d8backed Toronto Blue Jays62c48.39$30 inLost-$309150.5%46 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays42c45.16$19 inLost-$18.755,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c34.63$18 inWon+$16.371,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates78c32$25 inWon+$7.041,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c29.77$16 inWon+$13.962,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8328…e5ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays72c15.22$11 inLost-$10.969339.8%37 W · 56 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates78c14.93$12 inWon+$3.2266056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.