MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75daef047081b7a32f53b01928d5c73cb21aa7eb2e825f156003b29d5f8ba9dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 1,756$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 1,172$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.23 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 1,031$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 851.36$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 681.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 664.79$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.86 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 535.73$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.22 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 378.57$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 24c | 251.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 217.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 216.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 170.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 146$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 133.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 102.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 80.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…e41bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 76.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 71.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 69.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 67.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 65.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 43.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 37.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 26.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 24.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.