MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8f1d5828346721881df9c8c218702e7f4d8c3967b76d58163bf94e9ab5c051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 9,924$7,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.22 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 5,738$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.12 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 4,184$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 4,100$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 2,858$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.8 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 2,841$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 2,331$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.51 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 2,035$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.97 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,804$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,100$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 505.11$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.58 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 452$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 305.27$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 274.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 250.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 227.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 219.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 211$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…9709backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 196.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e67…a1f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 172.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 142.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbf…f1e4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 138.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…5969backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 125.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 125.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143f…3c63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 104.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 100.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 82.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 73.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…7978backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 65.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 57.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 51.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 55.6%105 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 45.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 41.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffc…a5b7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 33.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.