NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f259cacaaf8a6182a6a584424d2e6b1ecf8eb2e0ed093e87434fa63aabbadb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 48c | 2,080$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,888$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 1,283$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.47 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Under | 52c | 348.73$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 226.53$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…11c0backed Under | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 113.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…463dbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 56.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b1e3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 53c | 39.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2a…9739backed Under | 55c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Pacers won
- Nets vs. PacersNets won
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Pacers (-7.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.