NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3582ef160d6db3c1f1ffd56eed8cd61b094b60cb8cdd3849b2bcd7a5d90010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $546,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $546,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Under | 48c | 493,865$236,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257,142.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 52c | 200,000$104,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,000 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Over | 52c | 177,939$92,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,528.11 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Over | 52c | 30,577$15,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,900.19 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,600 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…ba08backed Over | 56c | 17,182$9,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,564.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 52c | 11,111$5,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,777.72 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 53c | 10,494$5,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,526.97 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 8,824$4,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,652.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 54c | 6,195$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.56 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 47c | 4,447$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.77 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 54c | 4,000$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.29 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 3,205$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.66 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,302$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 1,022$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.54 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 53c | 797.49$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 45c | 578$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 547.9$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 52c | 458.94$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Over | 53c | 418.87$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed Under | 46c | 285.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 259.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 230$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 113.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed Over | 52c | 99.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 50c | 94.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 56c | 71.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…62c7backed Over | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 49c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Pacers won
- Nets vs. PacersNets won
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-6.5)Nets won
- Spread: Pacers (-7.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.